Which Village People Character Are You Voting For?

My experience is that most voters tend to think in cliches. They like simple slogans and catch phrases. They are not interested in a nuanced discussion of issues.  They want the comic book version. As the hero wearing the cape is flying through the air, they want three simple bullet points that answer the same question: What are you going to do for me? When Democrats win it is often because they are lucky. When they lose it is because they do not provide a satisfactory answer to this question.

Most politicians think in cliches, too. This could be because they don’t have the intellectual acuity to deeply understand issues. (Really, how many local candidates understand neoliberalism and how the Silicon Valley tech bros have brought our democracy to its knees?)

Which brings us to the Village People – the NYC disco band that emerged in the late 1970s. Some of us remember dancing to their hits: YMCA, Macho Man, In the Navy. (And even though state senator Holmstrom hates LGBTQ people and opposes same-sex marriage, it would not surprise me at all if, after downing a few beers, he did the YMCA dance with some friends at a football game, sometime in his past.)

There were six Village People: the policeman, the construction worker, the cowboy, the native American chief, the motorcycle rider, and the army man. Collectively, these are the only architypes one needs to understand Wright County politics.

In Wright County (SD29), incumbent senator Michael Holmstrom is the policeman. His campaign is all about rules he wants people to follow: no trans people or gay marriage, no reproductive freedom, and always obey ICE, the modern-day Gestapo. This is his brand of cultural engineering, straight from his handlers at Project 2025. There are rules, and you vill obey zee rules.

His challenger, DFL nominee Louis McNutt, is the construction worker. He emphasizes his blue-collar labor union background, and always appears in costume – his jeans, work boots, and work shirt are symbols of his cultural identity (but not necessarily the identity of the electorate). No room for “suits” around here.

Out here, DFL messaging sucks for many reasons. DFL candidates do not understand that the way a person looks is one part of the messaging. Most voters do not aspire to look like slobs, and most of them would like their elected representatives to not look like slobs. How many people would be inspired while waiting in an operating room when the surgeon walks in wearing jeans, a T shirt, and work boots?

The problem with the construction worker / labor union image is that out here, only about 10% of the people belong to labor unions. And, about half of those are white collar unions like Education Minnesota. This leaves about 5% of Wright County who are labor union members, and most of them are Republicans.

So how does this play out in November? I don’t know. If I could accurately predict the future I would raise my rates substantially.

In my view, Holmstrom’s Project 2025 policies are bad for Minnesota, but he has proven himself to be a successful candidate. He is a winner and he could become governor of Minnesota. I don’t think this is because he is an intellectual powerhouse, but because he has a simple, easy to understand, exclusionary message that people think (rightly or wrongly) reflects their interests.

And while I want McNutt to win, his campaign in 2025 (where he got clobbered), and his current campaign, can best be described as flaccid. (“What, me worry?”)

The DFL out here shouldn’t rely on the hope of a “Blue Wave” that will reach all they way down to state house elections. They might as well rely on a belief in Thor, or in Taylor Swift.

The hard work that needs to be done is not knocking on doors. It’s knocking on doors with the right message.

Wright County is a heavily red district that got that way because of decades of ineffective DFL campaigns. It can be flipped with campaigns that understand the role of identity in elections, and that can undermine identity politics with a message that carefully peels away voters in the middle.

It’s about messaging. I don’t see it happening yet. But I am hopeful that I will be proved wrong on November 3.